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  • 11 Dec 2014

    Constrained bank balance sheets and receptive bond markets will enable European companies to expand their funding options, a credit positive, continuing the broader trend of disintermediation of corporate financing in Europe. However, the overall disintermediation trend is likely to slow because the largest European banks have raised significant equity and improved their balance sheet capitalization over the past 18 months, thereby creating more lending capacity… Press Release l Full Report
  • 11 Dec 2014

    Banks will continue to make progress in restoring their financial fundamentals during 2015. However, the uneven global recovery remains fragile in some countries, leaving their banking systems vulnerable to shocks. Furthermore, although interest rates remain at historically low levels they are likely to rise in the US, with negative implications for asset quality. In addition, burgeoning regulatory requirements are likely to raise costs… Press Release l Full Report
  • 09 Dec 2014

    The world's economies are adjusting to new positions in their historical growth cycles with varying and sometimes counter-intuitive implications for the credit markets. Improving rates of growth are generally credit positive; however, for some sectors such as US commercial mortgage-backed securities, the continuing rise of property prices combined with increasingly aggressive underwriting practices, both typical in an expanding economy, will have negative credit implications for newly issued transactions. Conversely, ongoing rebalancing in response to China's slower growth will benefit strategically important state-owned enterprises and consumer-focused sectors. This overview of our 2015 Outlooks highlights the credit implications of today's macro-economic environment by region, country and sector… Full Report l All Moody’s 2015 Outlooks
  • 09 Dec 2014

    Despite regulators’ efforts to reduce emphasis on short-term results in determining executive compensation at the global investment banks, performance vesting and deferral periods are too short to cover credit cycles and potential tail risks… Press Release l Full Report
  • 08 Dec 2014

    Strong oil supplies and tepid demand will keep oil prices lower in 2015 and beyond. In response, we lowered our oil price assumptions for 2015 and 2016, which led us to also change our outlooks for the global exploration and production (upstream) and global oilfield services and drilling sectors to negative. EBITDA will decline next year for both sectors... Summary l Presentation
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China

Reform and Rebalancing
 


  • The Chinese economy is embarking on a path of rebalancing, defined by a reorientation away from the export and investment-led development model towards a model where consumption gradually becomes a more important engine of growth. This process will be characterized by economic restructuring, policy reform, market liberalization, and credit deceleration, posing both opportunities and challenges for China's credit universe. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues in China as the country's rebalancing story unfolds.

  • After several years of economic contraction, the euro area — still the second largest economic area after the US — returned to growth during the second half of 2013. This was the result of significant structural adjustment across the euro area periphery, institutional reform at the European Union and euro area levels and of a related reduction of market stress. However, growth is expected to be subdued for the foreseeable future, reflecting still large stocks of public debt, restrictive financing conditions and pre-existing long-term structural constraints (notably, poor demographic prospects). Given these obstacles, as well as the still incomplete nature of the euro area’s economic union, it is clear that the future growth model of the European Union and its core, the euro area, faces challenges. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.

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